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The Federal Government of Nigeria has welcomed Fitch Ratings' decision to revise Nigeria's outlook to Positive from Stable, while affirming its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at 'B', saying the action validates ongoing economic reforms.
Fitch announced the revision on October 9, 2026. A Positive outlook signals that the rating could be upgraded if current trends are sustained.
In a statement issued in Abuja on Saturday October 10, 2026, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said Fitch attributed the action to sustained reform of Nigeria's policy framework and increased confidence that the reform momentum will be maintained.
According to the agency, key drivers include greater naira flexibility, disinflation and faster-than-expected build-up of foreign exchange reserves.
Fitch noted that gross reserves stood at $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, up from $32 billion in mid-April 2024, supported by formalisation of FX transactions, strong portfolio inflows, and higher export receipts and remittances.
It said improved reserve quality has strengthened Nigeria's resilience to external shocks, projecting a current account surplus of 6.4 percent of GDP in 2026.
On growth, Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 4 percent in 2025, with growth remaining above 4 percent in 2027 and 2028, driven by non-oil activity.
The agency also noted that crude oil production has met Nigeria's OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026, while ramp-up of domestic refining is reducing refined product imports and FX demand.
Average inflation is forecast to moderate to 15.4 percent in 2026, less than half its 2024 level.
On fiscal and financial sectors, Fitch expects ongoing tax reforms to lift the non-oil revenue-to-GDP ratio.
It projects general government debt to average 32 percent of GDP over 2026-2028, well below the 'B' median of 56 percent.
It also recognised Nigeria's liquid domestic debt market and the bank recapitalisation exercise, with many banks holding capital adequacy ratios above 20 percent, well above regulatory minimums.
With the latest action, all three major international rating agencies have taken positive rating actions on Nigeria in 2026.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria to 'B' from 'B-' in May, and Moody's Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August. Separately, FTSE Russell returned Nigeria to Frontier Market status effective September 21, 2026.
Oyedele said the converging assessments reflect confidence in Nigeria's reform trajectory.
"Fitch's Positive Outlook further validates the difficult but necessary reforms implemented under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, from removing a costly and inequitable fuel subsidy to unifying the exchange rate and the landmark tax reforms," the Minister said.
"Our medium-term ambition is to place Nigeria firmly on the path to investment grade. We are committed to this work, not for the rating itself, but because these reforms will lower Nigeria's cost of capital, crowd in private investment and create decent jobs at scale."
He acknowledged Fitch's concerns that inflation, though falling, remains above peers, government revenue is still low relative to GDP, and interest costs absorb a high share of revenue, noting these are constraints the reform programme is designed to address.
The Minister reaffirmed government's commitment to sustaining a disciplined, market-reflective and transparent FX regime, raising revenue through full implementation of new tax laws and efficient administration, improving spending efficiency, budget execution and debt transparency, advancing structural reforms for non-oil growth and diversification, and accelerating conversion of macro stability into shared prosperity through food security, jobs, human development and support for small businesses.
Fitch said positive rating action could follow sustained disinflation and reform implementation, further strengthening of external reserves, and stronger mobilisation of non-oil revenue — all central pillars of the administration's economic strategy, the statement added.